Sunday, November 8, 2009

Green Book - The green book is prepared by staff members at the Board of Governors five days in advance of an FOMC meeting. It presents the staff’s interpretations on several economic and financial variables and is divided into two parts. The first part of the green book describes and interprets significant developments in U.S. economic activity, prices, interest rates, flows of money and credit, and the international sector that have occurred in recent months or quarters. This section also presents forecasts of a number of variables for the next six to eight quarters. The second section of the green book provides additional information on recent developments. It describes trends in employment, production, and prices and the factors influencing them. This section also includes sector-by-sector analyses, commenting on such areas as housing, motor vehicle production, inventories, and spending by federal, state, and local governments. It reviews a range of developments in domestic financial markets, including credit patterns for banks, other financial intermediaries, non-financial businesses, and consumers. Finally, international developments are reviewed, with commentary on trade statistics, international financial transactions, foreign exchange markets, and economic activity in a number of foreign countries.


Blue Book – A day after the green book, the FOMC members receive the blue book. All blue books present the Board staff’s view of monetary and financial developments for the few months surrounding the meeting in question. Each book first reviews recent developments in policy variables, including the Federal Funds rate, reserve measures, and the monetary aggregates. The blue book also presents two or three alternative policy scenarios for the upcoming inter-meeting period. The blue books written for the February and July meetings contain two extra sections to assist the Committee in its preparation for the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The first of these sections provides longer term simulations, covering the next five or six years. This section also offers estimates of how different assumptions about factors such as fiscal policy, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the speed of adjustment to changed inflationary expectations would affect the predicted outcome. The second additional section in the February and July blue books sets out alternative annual ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates.

Red Book - Published every Tuesday, this report presents the detail sales of some 30 US stores produce the previous week and compared to the previous month. It is always a forecast which counts for the request of the households but a rather volatile measurement taking into consideration the more or less significant months for the detail business.

Durable goods order – The durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hardwoods. Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provides insight to demand for things like refrigerators and cars, but also business investment going forward. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation. It tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.

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