Monday, November 9, 2009

US wants firm dollar, rising savings

TOKYO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said on Monday the United States wants to strengthen the dollar by increasing the savings rate in its economy.


Fujii, speaking to lawmakers in parliament, also said U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's message for Japan during a visit this week is to not focus so much on exports.

The Group of 20 finance ministers agreed over the weekend a new framework aimed at rebalancing the global economy and will present detailed economic plans for each other to check by the end of January. Part of the plan is for debt-laden countries such as the U.S. to save more and for countries with large trade surpluses such as China to export less.

"The dollar is weak, and that's why the yen and the euro are strong," Fujii said.

"The U.S. doesn't want that. They want a strong currency and they want to return to an economy with a rising savings rate."

Geithner will visit Tokyo on Nov. 10-11 before attending an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum finance ministers' meeting in Singapore.

One important topic during Geithner's visit to Japan and Singapore will be how to bring about sustainable growth as the global economy recovers from the worst recession in decades.

That crisis was sparked by losses on U.S. mortgage derivatives. Some economists have said one contributing factor to the global recession was that major exporters, such as Japan and China, relied on consumers overseas buying their goods, and these consumers often racked up debts to fuel their purchases.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Unemployment rate

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - The National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM), now called the Institute for Supply Management, releases a monthly composite index of national manufacturing conditions, constructed from data on new orders, production, supplier delivery times, backlogs, inventories, prices, employment, export orders, and import orders. It is divided into manufacturing and non-manufacturing sub-indices.


Producer Price Index (PPI) – PPI is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. The PPI measures price changes in the manufacturing sector. It measures average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers in the manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and electric utility industries for their output. Inflation at this producer level often gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data like the PPI influence the markets and your investments.

Retail Sales – Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales date can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company’s quarterly or annual report.

Retail Prices Index (RPI) - The RPI is the UK’s principal measure of consumer price inflation. It is defined as an average measure of change in the prices of goods and services brought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is complied and published monthly. Once published, it is never revised. RPI includes date on food and drink, tobacco, housing, household goods and services, personal goods and services, transport fares, motoring costs, clothing and leisure goods and services. Measures of inflation are vital tools for economists, business and government. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee sets UK interest rates on the basis of a target figure for inflation set by Chancellor of the Exchequer. Wage agreements, pensions and change in benefit levels are often linked directly to the RPI. Utility regulators impose restrictions on price movements based on the RPI.

Trade Balance - The balance of trade is a statement of a country’s trade in goods (merchandise) and services. It covers trade in products such as manufactured goods, raw materials and agricultural goods, as well as travel and transportation. The balance of trade is the difference between the value of the goods and services that a country exports and the value of the goods and services that it imports. If a country’s exports exceed its imports, it has a trade surplus and the trade balance is said to be positive. If imports exceed exports, the country has a trade deficit and its trade balance is said to be negative.

The balance of trade sometimes refers to trade in goods only. The term should not be confused with the balance of payments, which is a much broader statement of international monetary flows, including not only trade in goods and services, but also investment income flows and transfer payments. A positive or negative balance may simply reflect a change in the relative cost of domestic products compared with international prices. For industries that rely heavily on exports, like the auto sector, a positive balance of trade may reflect a higher international demand, which can mean more jobs in that industry.
Unemployment rate - Percentage of employable people actively seeking work, out of the total number of employable people determined in a monthly survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. An unemployment rate of about 4% - 6% is considered “healthy”. Lower rates are seen as inflationary

due to the upward pressure on salaries; higher rates threaten a decrease in consumer spending.
New home sales – The number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends. This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as new home sales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. Trends in the new home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.


Nonfarm Payroll – The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time and full-time in the nation’s business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls. This is without a doubt the economic report that move the markets the most. The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they’re getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state and future direction of the economy. They also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market.

Personal Income – Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods and services. The income and outlays data are another handy way to gauge the strength of the economy and where it is headed. Income gives households the power to spend and/or save. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing. The consumption (outlays) part of this report is even more directly tied to the economy, which we know usually dictates how the markets perform. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you’ll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that’s a big advantage for investors.

Philadelphia Fed Survey – A composite diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey is widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends since it is correlated with the ISM survey and the index of industrial production. The Philly Fed survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behaviour. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation.
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) – Formerly known as the NAPM. Change was effective in January 2002. ISM is a composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions. Readings above 50% indicate an expanding factory sector. Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic date like the ISM, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The ISM gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. More than one of the ISM sub-indexes provides insight on commodity prices and clues regarding the potential for developing inflation. The Federal Reserve keeps a close watch on this report which helps it to determine the direction of interest rates when inflation signals are flashing in these data.


Jobless Claims – A weekly compilation of the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. This indicator, and more importantly, its four-week moving average, portends in the labor market. Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filling for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income which gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so the stronger the job market, the healthier the economy. By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a send of how tight the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it’s a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. The lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market is, and vice versa.

Leading Indicators – A composite index of ten economic indicators that typically lead overall economic activity. Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data like the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The index of Leading Indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy such as recessions and recoveries. Incidentally, stock prices are one of the leading indicators in this index.

Money supply – The monetary aggregates are alternative measures of the money supply by degree of liquidity. Changes in the monetary aggregates indicate the thrust of monetary policy as well as the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures. The monetary aggregates (know individually as M1, M2 and M3) used to be all the rage a few years back because the data revealed the Fed’s (tight or loose) hold on credit conditions in the economy. The Fed issues target ranges for money supply growth. In the past, if actual growth moved outside those ranges it often was a prelude to an interest rate move from the Fed. Today, monetary policy is understood more clearly by the level of the federal funds rate. Money supply fell out of vogue in the nineties, due to a variety of changes in the financial system and the way the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. The Fed is working on some new measures of money supply, and given the way economic indicators ebb and flow in popularity, don’t be surprised if the monetary aggregates make a comeback in the future.
IFO Business Climate in industry and trade – The IFO Business Climate Index is a widely early indicator for economic development in Germany. Every month the IFO Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises in west and east Germany on their appraisals of the business situation (good/satisfactory/poor) and their expectations for the next six months (better/same/worse). The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The percentage shares of the positive and negative responses to both questions are balanced and a geometric mean is formed from the balances divided according to east and west Germany. The series of balances thus derived are linked to a base year (currently 1991) and seasonally adjusted.


Import and export prices – The prices of goods that are brought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that’s bad news for stocks as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolio.

Industrial production and capacity utilization – The Index of Industrial Production is a chain-weight measure of the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. The capacity utilization rate reflects the usage of available resources. Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Industrial production show how much factories, mines and utilities are producing. Since the manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behaviour. The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. If the utilization rate gets too high (above 85%) it can lead to inflationary bottlenecks in production. The Federal Reserve watches this report closely and sets interest rate policy on the basis of whether production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures.

International Trade – Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact all the financial markets, but especially the foreign exchange value of the dollar. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services here and the US exports show the demand for US goods in overseas countries. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. This report gives a breakdown of US trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Existing home sales – Number of previously constructed homes with a closed sale during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) are a large share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Even though home resales don’t always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales date carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.


Factory orders – Dollar level of new orders for manufacturing durable goods and nondurable goods. It gives more complete information than durable goods orders which are reported one or two weeks earlier in the month. The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production. All in all, this report tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The sum of all goods and services produced either by domestic or foreign companies. GDP indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing (or shrinking) and is considered the broadest indicator of economic output and growth. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components like consumer spending, business and residential investments and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy’s undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Housing starts – Housing starts measure the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month. Home builders don’t start a house unless they are fairly confident it will sell upon or before its competition. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and the outlook for the construction industry. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises and income will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers and dryers, furniture and landscaping are just a few things new home buyers might spend money on, so the economic “ripple effect” can be substantial especially when you think of it in terms of a hundred thousand new households around the country doing this every month. Trends in the housing starts date carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends.
Green Book - The green book is prepared by staff members at the Board of Governors five days in advance of an FOMC meeting. It presents the staff’s interpretations on several economic and financial variables and is divided into two parts. The first part of the green book describes and interprets significant developments in U.S. economic activity, prices, interest rates, flows of money and credit, and the international sector that have occurred in recent months or quarters. This section also presents forecasts of a number of variables for the next six to eight quarters. The second section of the green book provides additional information on recent developments. It describes trends in employment, production, and prices and the factors influencing them. This section also includes sector-by-sector analyses, commenting on such areas as housing, motor vehicle production, inventories, and spending by federal, state, and local governments. It reviews a range of developments in domestic financial markets, including credit patterns for banks, other financial intermediaries, non-financial businesses, and consumers. Finally, international developments are reviewed, with commentary on trade statistics, international financial transactions, foreign exchange markets, and economic activity in a number of foreign countries.


Blue Book – A day after the green book, the FOMC members receive the blue book. All blue books present the Board staff’s view of monetary and financial developments for the few months surrounding the meeting in question. Each book first reviews recent developments in policy variables, including the Federal Funds rate, reserve measures, and the monetary aggregates. The blue book also presents two or three alternative policy scenarios for the upcoming inter-meeting period. The blue books written for the February and July meetings contain two extra sections to assist the Committee in its preparation for the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The first of these sections provides longer term simulations, covering the next five or six years. This section also offers estimates of how different assumptions about factors such as fiscal policy, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the speed of adjustment to changed inflationary expectations would affect the predicted outcome. The second additional section in the February and July blue books sets out alternative annual ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates.

Red Book - Published every Tuesday, this report presents the detail sales of some 30 US stores produce the previous week and compared to the previous month. It is always a forecast which counts for the request of the households but a rather volatile measurement taking into consideration the more or less significant months for the detail business.

Durable goods order – The durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hardwoods. Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provides insight to demand for things like refrigerators and cars, but also business investment going forward. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation. It tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.
Consumer sentiment – Survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by the University of Michigan. Five hundred consumers are surveyed each month. The level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how the index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Changes in consumer sentiment and retail sales don’t move in tandem month by month.


Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. The CPI is the most followed indicator of inflation in the United States. Inflation is a general increase in the price of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data like the CPI influence the markets. By tracking the trends in inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform.

Current account – Measure of the country’s international trade balance in goods, services and unilateral transfers. The level of the current account, as well as the trends in exports and imports, are followed as indicators of trends in foreign trade. U.S. trade with foreign countries hold important clues to economic trends here and abroad. The data can directly impact all the financial markets, but especially the foreign exchange value of the dollar.

Books

Beige Book - District banks have been printing summaries of the economic conditions in their districts since 1970. Initially this “Red Book” was prepared for policymakers only and was not intended for public consumption. It was made public in 1983. To mark this change, the color of the cover was changed and the publication became known as the Beige Book. The Beige Book is released two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its district through reports from bank and branch directors and interviews with key businessmen, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by district and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis. The report is primarily seen as an indicator of how the Fed might act at its upcoming meeting.

How to read and interpret a weekly economic calendar

Major Indicators


APICS Survey – Composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions. The APICS survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector. This survey is less well known that the ISM, but can also indicate trends in production. The diffusion index does not move in tandem with the ISM index every month, but sometimes the two do move in the same direction. Since manufacturing is a major sector of economy, investors can get a feel for the general economic backdrop for various investments. An index level of 50 means no growth, but every 10 points signals gains of 4% in manufacturing.

Business Inventories – Dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity. Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. By looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see whether production demands will expand or contract in the near future. The business inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.

Chain Stores Sales – Monthly sales volumes from department, chain, discount and apparel stores. Sales are reported by the individual retailers. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending results. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Sales are reported as a change from the same month a year ago. It is important to know how strong sales actually were a year ago to make sense of this year’s sales. In addition, sales are usually reported for “comparable stores” in case of company mergers.

Construction Spending – Dollar value of the new construction activity on residential, non-residential and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Businesses only put money into construction of new factories or offices when they are confident that demand is strong enough to justify the expansion. The same goes for individuals making the investment in a home. That’s why construction spending is a good indicator of the economy’s momentum.

Consumer Confidence – Survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by The Conference Board. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. The level of consumer confidence is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don’t move in tandem month by month.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

BoE And ECB Announce Interest Rates

BoE And ECB Announce Interest Rates


Today is the highlight of the week as both the Bank of England and European Central Bank are scheduled to announce interest rates in which expectations reveal that both of the central banks are going to leave them steady at 0.50 percent and 1.00 percent respectively.

First on our calendars, is industrial production for September in which expectations reveal that will improve to 1.2% from -2.5% while on the year it will ease its decline to -10.3% from -11.2%. Also manufacturing production monthly is to be released with projections showing that it will rise to 1.0% from -1.9%, as for yearly it will enhance to -9.7% from the prior -11.3 percent.

As the production from the manufacturing sector is recovering, this hints that production output is somewhat enhancing as industries are trying their hardest to shake off the worst global recession witnessed since post world war era. The higher production output indicates that demand levels are slightly inclining and this helping industries produce more.

Next on our calendars are retail sales from the euro zone for September where they are forecasted to rise to 0.2% from the previous decline of 0.2% while on the year they are due to enhance to -2.4% from -2.6 percent.

The improvement in retail sales gives us evidence that finally consumers are starting to spend as they are gaining slight confidence about the outlook of the euro zone, since it is believed that consumers mostly spend when they are confident with the nation.

Lately, consumer confidence has been rising and this is what the ECB was anticipating. Also consumers are spending as they are taking advantage of reduced merchandise as lately retailers have been increasing sales as a way to encourage more consumers to enter their stores which would help retailers shore up profits.

Now turning to the major news of the day, the BoE will not only announce their rate decision, yet they will decide if they are going to expand the APF program or not in which already it is expected from the markets that the central bank will add an additional 50 billion pounds to the current amount of 175 billion pounds towards purchasing gilts.

The central bank had to apply quantitative easing methods because even with taking interest rates down to the lowest on record at 0.50% did not support economic growth much, which was why they had to turn to other measures to jolt the United Kingdom out of recession.

The APF program has been proving itself successful as we are noticing improvement in the nation take place yet there are worries that this program on the long run could trigger inflation, while from our point of view that should not be a problem because then the BoE could boost rates to encourage more savings to take place.

The ECB like the BoE are going to leave rates unchanged at 1.00% since currently the central bank is more interested in the unorthodox measures than changing interest rates. While after the announcement of the rate decision, President of the central bank Jean-Claude Trichet will speak giving us an overview of the current economic conditions

The volatility remains in the stock markets as once again after the European session ended Tuesday in the red zone, yesterday they closed in the green territory. The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 gained 50.99 points or 1.88% to 2763.29 points, CAC 40 climbed 86.08 points or 2.40% to 3670.33 points while the DAX surged 90.88 points or 1.70% to 5444.23 points.

Global Daily

Focus today: The day will be dominated by central banks. We expect the ECB to leave the refi rate unchanged and the tone at the press conference to turn slightly more positive. Trichet might hint that the ECB intends to begin to roll back unconventional measures next year, but we will have to wait for the December meeting to get any major new insights into the exit strategy. The BoE will keep rates unchanged as well and we reckon that the BoE might consider expanding its asset purchase programme. In the US the main releases will be jobless claims and ICSC chain store sales.


Fixed income markets: The US yield curve steepened further yesterday following the FOMC decision. The 2y yield was marginally lower while a rise in market inflation fears took 5y5y forward breakeven inflation up by 6bp and sent 10y yields higher. The 10y yield is now approaching the upper limit of the current trading range and we would need some firmer evidence of a sustainable recovery to support a further increase. We will likely have to wait for tomorrow's employment report to get that. Today's key events will be the monetary policy meetings at the ECB and the BoE. We do not expect any major news from the ECB, but the BoE might expand its asset purchases, which would lend some support to Gilts.

FX markets: An announcement of a 50bn extension of BoE's Asset Purchase Programme to an astonishing 225bn could send GBP weaker today. We expect that the BoE will react to the terrible Q3 GDP numbers and the troubled situation for British banks by announcing additional Gilt purchases. The market reaction to the previous two extensions has been a lower pound, but the market is more prepared this time. If the BoE decides to end the programme, EUR/GBP could continue lower, perhaps even towards 0.8705 where the technical bullish bias ends.

Scandi Daily
There are no events in the Scandi markets today and the fixed income market is expected to trail Euroland. EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK should have further downside as the unchanged wording from the FOMC should support risk appetite.

Today's Key Points

Today's Key Points



1--There were very few changes in the FOMC statement. Importantly, Fed still expects interest rates to be exceptionally low for an extended period.


2--Initial response to the FOMC statement were higher long bond yields and weaker USD. However, a late sell-off in the stock market on concerns about financial earnings has since reversed these market movements.


3--Bank of Japan's minutes confirm termination of quantitative easing does not signal imminent rate increase.

 

Monday, November 2, 2009

Tips to Make Money Fast in Forex

Tips to Make Money Fast in Forex


This is all about making a fortune with Forex. Most traders just go with the flow and make average gains, with this article you will learn what makes some traders stand out and a lot richer than others!

We are going to assume that you know how to trade, and has quite an experience in trading.

With simple changes in your trade selection, money and risk management, and mindset, you can change that average gains into larger ones!

Fast money is in Forex, it is a lifestyle. here is it how its done.

Tip 1 . Embrace Changeability and Risk With a Smile

Forex systems have instability.

If you cannot manage and calculate your risk, then don't ever think about trading in Forex. Many traders back away from forex because of this ( why do you even traded in the first place?). But taking manageable risks has its rewards.

It's just simple, you know what your losing if ever it doesn't work out, yet what you gain is unpredictable but sure is high! That is what I call excitement, my friend.

To a well-educated Forex trader, this is something you shouldn't be afraid of, might as well embrace it.

Tip 2. Trade Less, gain more
Most traders think that if they don't trade, another door has closed, or miss some move. The tendency, they trade frequently. Most of the trades that come big come a few times in a year. Focus on the trades that make the really big gains. Be alert, and informed.

Tip 3. Diversify is a no-no
Most Investors accept the fact that diversification can make money fast - in reality it does exactly the opposite.

Tip 4. Money and Risk Management
This article has been concentrating on the Big gains, because this is your money, so every penny should be controlled, this is where money management kicks in.

Control your risks, but increase your chances of success:

- Give yourself staying power by buying options at or in the money, this prevents you from getting stopped out. Many traders lose not by the market direction, but because they were stopped out by a instable move, and options will give you staying power.

- Keep your stop in its original position - until the move is well in profit, before moving it up.

- Trading fast and selectively - have the courage to trade when you feel it is good. and enjoy the cash.

Tip 5. Compound growth has its benefits
The way to make money fast in forex, is to understand the power of compound growth. For example, if you target 50% a year in your trading, you can grow an initial $20,000 account, to over a million dollars, in under 10 years.

Break the norm, and gain more. Follow some of these tips and make your way into the big gains!

Forex Scams: How To Spot Them

Since a whole book can be written on the various tactics and methods used by Forex scam artists, in this article, I will focus on the major warning signs that one needs to identify to avoid falling victim to Forex swindlers.




1. Promises of Little or No Risk



If you encounter a Forex firm that claims to have developed a foreign currency trading strategy that carries very little or no risk, stay away. The reason Forex trading can be very profitable is because it also carries a very high risk of loss. The Forex market is very volatile, and, without good money management, an investor can lose most if not all her capital within few days. Thus, individuals and firms who make claims that are far from market realities, as is riskless Forex trading, are really after your money.



2. Guarantees of Large Profits



Beware of firms that guarantee large profits in Forex trading. These so called "guarantees" are mere ploys to entice investors and make them believe that their money is safe and that they will definitely make large profits. Such claims are simply untrue, because even the best professional traders cannot guarantee that they will make a profit any given day. The Forex market, as most financial markets, is very unpredictable. Hence, be suspicious of such claims and those who make them.



3. Employment Ads For Forex Traders



Many Forex trading firms use employment ads to attract individuals with capital to trade using their systems. The employment ads, which often appear in newspapers and on the Internet, state that a foreign currency trading firm is looking for individuals to teach them how to trade the foreign currency market using firm capital. Those who reply to the ad are convinced by the firm that they will make a fortune trading currencies if they participate in the firm's training program. During the training process, which often occurs on a demo system, the novice traders are encouraged and told that their demo trading records show that have made significant profits, that they are ready to make real money and would very successful. Despite the firm's assessment of the novice trader as a brilliant newcomer, no firm capital is provided to the trader, instead the excited novice is told to use her own capital to trade using the firm's platform. In addition to various fees imposed on traders using the firm's platform, the Forex firm makes money as an introducing broker. Each time the novice trader trades through the firm's system, a good part of the spread charged by the broker is shared and goes into the firm's coffers. After few months, the novice trader loses all of her capital and leaves. The Forex firm, having made money during the novice trader's short stint, moves on to new traders eager to become rich trading foreign currencies.



4. Is the Forex Firm a CFTC or NFA Member?



Before you sign a check and give your capital to a Forex company, make sure you investigate the entity. Check to see whether the Forex firm, with which you want to do business, is registered with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the National Futures Association. Many scam artists falsely claim that their firms are registered with the CFTC or the NFA to gain a perspective investor's trust. Do not trust anyone, research the firm and the background of the individuals involved before parting with your hard earned money.



The Internet has paved the way for many new opportunities for retail investors. The Forex market is both exciting and fast paced. Investor's who are careful and diligent are likely to avoid the perils of this market, and will profit from the growth and opportunities of foreign currency trading.

8 Basic Tips on choosing Best FOREX Broker

8 Basic Tips on choosing Best FOREX Broker
There are some basic notices that you should consider when you want choosing online forex broker.

#1- Spread Amount
The spread, which is calculated in pips, is the difference between how much you can buy or sell a currency at a specific point in time.

Forex currencies are not traded through a central exchange market, so the spread can be different depending on the forex broker you use. Some online forex brokers have variable spread; some of them have two spread amounts that depend to day and night.

Some of them their spread depends to the position of market. When market is quiet the spread is small and when market is busy the spread is high. I prefer forex brokers that have fixed spread, because over the long term fixed can be safer.

#2- Execution
— How fast is the broker's order execution?
— Do they offer automatic execution?
— How much can you trade before having to request a quote?
— Do they trade against their clients?
The best way to find out is to open a demo account and give them a test drive.

#3- Leverage Options
Leverage is expressed as a ratio between the total capital that is available to be traded and your actual capital. For example, when you have a ratio of 100:1, your forex broker will lend you $100 for every $1 of actual capital you have. Leverage is a necessity in forex trading because the price deviations in the currencies are set at fractions of a cent.

Before choosing an online forex broker notice that what is their leverage. Many brokerages offer a flexible margin that allows you to choose the leverage that's right for you.

#4- Account Types
Notice the forex broker you choose has mini account or not. Mini account is designed for those new to online currency trading and those with limited investment capital. There is a smaller deposit required to start trade of just $300 or less.

#5- Trading Platform
Good trading software will show live prices that you can actually trade at, not just indicative quotes. It will offer Limit and Stop orders, and ideally will let you attach these to your entry order. One-Cancels-Other orders are another useful feature — they mean you can set up your trade and then leave the software to get on with it.

#6- Dealing tools and value-added services
Find out online forex broker that offers the best resources and information to help you make the smartest trading decisions. A good company should offer real-time charts, technical analysis tools, real-time news and data, and software or website support. Be weary of any company that refuses to share information or trial versions before opening up an account. You will want to try out their system before you choose to invest money in it.

#7- Support
Forex is a 24 hour market, so your online forex broker should offer 24 hour support. You should also check if you can close positions over the phone — essential in case your PC or internet connection crash at a critical moment. You could contact to their Internet help desks to see how quickly they respond to enquiries.

#8- Get Referrals
Ask around and read forex forums to find out which forex brokers other people use and why they selected a specific broker.

The Worst Forex Trading Strategy Ever That You Might Be Using

You may be wondering, `Why would David Jenyns write about the worst Forex trading strategy around?`




There are a couple of reasons:



First, to warn you about the worst Forex trading strategy, because you really don`t want to end up using this system.



Second, because once you know the worst possible Forex trading strategy, the one that is designed to maximize your losses over the long run, then you can reverse it to craft a strategy which does the exact opposite.



With what you learn from the worst Forex trading strategy, you will be able to create a system that will produce some tremendous long-term gains. The worst Forex trading strategy I`m referring to, which is simply the worst Forex trading strategy I have ever encountered, is known as averaging down. This horrifying Forex trading strategy is the process of buying more shares that you had previously acquired, as the price drops.



Traders often purchase shares this way in an effort to reduce their initial entry price.



Only bad investors average down by buying shares of a sinking assests to decrease their overall average price per share. This Forex trading strategy is hardly ever effective, and is often like throwing good money after bad. It also magnifies a trader`s loss if the share keeps dropping. Remember, just because a share is cheap now that doesn`t mean it`s not going to get any cheaper. However, let`s examine how this devastating Forex trading strategy works. Say you bought one thousand shares at $40.



The novice investor may not have a stop loss in place, and the share price falls to $30 dollars. Here comes the stupidity of this Forex trading strategy — to average down the novice trader might by another thousand shares at $30 to lower the average cost per share that he`d already purchased. So, his average cost per share would now be $35.



Unfortunately, the share price may fall even further, and the novice trader will again buy more shares to reduce the average cost per share. They end up buying more and more into a share that`s losing their money.



Now, imagine this Forex trading strategy being applied to a portfolio of assets. In the end, all the capital will automatically be allocated to the worse performing assets in the portfolio while the best performing assets are sold off. The result is, at best, a disastrous underperformance versus the market.



If a trader uses an averaging down system and uses margins, their losses will be magnified even further. The biggest problem with this Forex trading strategy is that a trader`s gains are cut short, and the losers are left to run. My advice is — never average down. The process of buying a share, watching it fall, and then throwing more money at it in the hopes that you`ll either get back to break even or make a bigger killing is one of the most misguided pieces of advice on Wall Street. Never be faced with a situation where you`ll ask yourself, Should I risk even more than I originally intended in a desperate attempt to lower my cost and save my butt?`



Instead, design a simple, robust system with good money management rules. I can practically guarantee the results will be better than averaging down.

How I became a successful part time trader

I will not reveal my full strategy but I will reveal some techniques I use which help traders in their trades.




My strategy follows the following tips and techniques:



1 — Discipline: Put criteria for your trades, watch the market and only trade when criteria are met, if they are not met do not trade. My program is the most disciplined trader, it takes care of all of this, it monitors the market and only trade if only criteria are met, and the second advantage of this is the elimination of the fear factor, it enters a trade when it sees it is good to enter and fear nothing.



2 — Money management: It's the main key for good trading, I exit all trades and stop trading for a specific day if I lost -60 pips, in the other hand I put stop loss for my trades if I reached +25 pips profit, in that case profit will not get under +25 pips and it has open target, and all I have to do is go out and have fun.



3 — No trades for now: The most important thing in trading is sometime not to trade, I take this decision after looking to my charts and see that there is not enough volatility or there is no enough reports will be released for today and it is better to wait until market is more volatile. I advise traders not to trade during the first days of the month, personally I begin trading at the first Friday of the month when the "NonFarm payroll" report will be released.



4 — Analysis: I use fundamental and technical analysis while trading. Fundamental defines the trend of the market and the technical analysis is used after the definition of the trend. I trade the news by analyzing programmatically the released data for a specific report and generate signals which are executed immediately on the trading platform and forwarded simultaneously to my members.



Fundamental and technical analysis must be used together, if one is used without the other this will lead to failure.



5 — Technical indicators: In the forex market there is a lot of indicators which are used by many traders. I use ADX, Bollinger Bands to identify trends and volatility; RSI to identify an over bought or sold and Moving Average to identify a signal. And the most important technique is FIBONACCI, I advise traders to implement this technique and use it to confirm trades.



Finally, I must say that Forex is not easy, and many times we feel that someone is doing a conspiracy on us to take our money, but the truth is nothing is impossible, and others successful traders are not more intelligent than us and they are not genius from other planet, the fact is the more you work the more you become closer to become good trader. Do not quit quickly because this business deserves hard work and dedication.

How to Take Control in Forex Trading

How to Take Control in Forex Trading


Forex Trading is not that easy, all FX traders before they enter this business, they think that they will be rich very quickly and make $20 000 in one or two weeks, but when they begin trading currencies they discover it is not true, it is not easy to make money especially when we work with money. Very tricky business, many of us think that there is a conspiracy planned by "THE BIG GUYS", they know what we think what we plan to do and they do the opposite to steel our money, many times we think to make the opposite of our decision (if I see the market is going up then I will sell). And we begin searching for someone to help us making at least 200 or 300 pips a month, probably many of us work with signals advisors who simply took our money and probably do not help us making decent profit. Many of us thought stop trading many of us quit FX trading but I think most of us will not quit easily because we see in it a golden opportunity to have our own business and make our fortune!

How to Take Control in Forex Trading Part 1

First of all you must know that you must use fundamental and technical analysis in conjunction, both complete each others, so don't rely on one and leave the other. Fundamental is one of the reasons which influence the market, so if you are in a long trade and suddenly the trading currency went down so go and see if a report was released and see what its forecast and what was the released data and compare this data to your chart and you will have your first tool to control your business.

How to Take Control in Forex Trading Part 2

Second, in my opinion all the technical indicators didn't help me at all, I tried all the combinations nothing work, and indicators describe the status of the market but don't give you information about the next direction. I read a Forex article about a guy who describes his Forex Trading strategy in a Forex article, I was completely lost, he uses a combination of 12 indicators EMA340, SEMA890, EMA2900 etc: and he inserted FIBONACCI in it. I was totally lost. Even if his strategy worth 95% success I will not use it because I can control the market by using simpler techniques. So we don't need to seek indicators, only one indicator I use the Bollinger Bands which is the perfect weapon in my battle against Forex trading. So I want you to look at the Bollinger Bands and see how it affects a currency, focus on it and read well this Forex article and you will discover a lot of things, and you will have your second tool.

How to Take Control in Forex Trading Part 3

Third, suppose you are in a long trade and suddenly for no reason the Forex Trading price went down, there are no released reports it just turned down, this is weird. But weird things are those we don't understand, but if you observe your chart and go back several hours or days and drop a break line from higher swing points you will see that the price turns down because it reached that break line, you see there is no mystery. So this break line will be your Resistance and if price breaks it, it will continue going up, but going where and till when? Observe very carefully and you will learn as I did. And no need for midnight or afternoon candles, be simple as you can, that beast is not as ferocious as you think. So breakout is your third tool.

How to Take Control in Forex Trading Part 4

Fourth, what timeframe to use, it is up to you to choose the suitable timeframe, H1, H4, D1: I don't know, compare the charts and you will see the suitable timeframe. Timeframe is important and when you find it you will have your Fourth tool.




And that's it, I repeat observe your charts and focus and think in these clues in this Forex article and the more you think the more you discover, read Forex article, learn strategies and get foreign exchange books.



I do good profit from my Forex trading strategy because I program it, I gave my system the data and leave it do his job. This eliminates the fear factor and gave me more time to go out and have fun.



I hope this Forex Article gave some tips and techniques which help traders in their Foreign Exchange trades.

How To Get Started In FOREX Trading

How To Get Started In FOREX Trading


The foreign exchange market (Forex) offers many advantages to investors. But you need to know where to begin.



This short guide will give you the Forex basics, so you can quickly start participating in this fast growing market.



In the past, foreign exchange trading was limited to large players such as national banks and multi-national corporations. In the 1980's the rules were changed to allow smaller investors to participate using margin accounts. Margin accounts are the reason why Forex trading has become so popular. With a 100:1 margin account, you can control $100,000 with a $1,000 investment.

A Learning Curve

Forex is not simple, though, so you'll need some knowledge to make wise investment decisions. Although it is relatively easy to start trading on the Forex, there are risks involved.




Your first move as a beginner should be to find out as much as possible about the market before risking a dime.

Find A Broker

Forex traders usually require a broker to handle transactions. Most brokers are reputable and are associated with large financial institutions such as banks. A reputable broker will be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as protection against fraud and abusive trade practices.

Open an Account

Opening a Forex account is as simple as filling out a form and providing the necessary identification. The form includes a margin agreement which states that the broker may interfere with any trade deemed to be too risky. This is to protect the interests of the broker, since most trades are done using the broker's money.




Once your account has been established, you can fund it and begin trading.



Many brokers offer a variety of accounts to suit the needs of individual investors. Mini accounts allow you to get involved in Forex trading for as little as $250. Standard accounts may have a minimum deposit of $1000 to $2500, depending on the broker. The amount of leverage (how much borrowed money you can use) varies with account type. High leverage accounts give you more money to trade for a given investment.



Trades are commission-free, meaning that you can make many trades in one day without worrying about incurring high brokerage fees. Brokers make their money on the 'spread': the difference between bid and ask prices.

Paper Trading

Beginning traders are strongly advised get accustomed to Forex by doing "paper trades" for a period of time. Paper trades are practice transactions that don't involve real capital. They allow you to see how the system works while learning how to use the various software tools provided by most Forex brokers.




Most online brokers have demo accounts that allow you to make free paper trades for up to 30 days. Every new Forex investor should use these demo accounts at least until they are consistently showing profits.

Forex Software

Each broker has its own set of software tools for making transactions, but there are a few tools that are common to all Forex brokers. Real-time quotes, news feeds, technical analyses and charts, and profit-and-loss analyses are some of the features you can expect to see on most online brokers' web sites.




Almost every broker operates on the Internet. To access a broker's online services you'll need a reasonably modern computer, a fast Internet connection, and an up-to-date operating system. Once your account is set up, you can access it from any computer just by entering your account name and password. If for some reason you are unable get to a computer, most brokers will allow you to make trades over the phone.



There are lots of ways to make money. Forex trading is just one more potential stream of income -- if you are prepared to learn and practice.

Asia Session Recap

Asia Session Recap


The start of the trading week kicked off with high volatility early in Asia, with JPY opening up strong against the rest of the majors. After finishing the week just over the 90.00 handle, USDJPY opened significantly lower, bottoming out near the 89.20 area. EURJPY also saw a dramatic move to the downside moving to lows 150+ pips lower to around 131. However, the sell off was short lived, as the Yen seemed to give back most of its gains. USDJPY would eventually grind back over the 90.00 handle and EURJPY rallied back over 132.50, leaving traders with a chance to catch a short squeeze higher.



The market expects a busy week, with announcements expected from the RBA, FOMC , BoE, and ECB. If that weren’t enough for the currency markets to handle, the week will be concluded the Non Farm Payrolls out of the US on Friday.

The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY

The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY



Price: 89.93



Bias: I'd prefer a bullish scenario but wait for a break above 90.48-80 - until then there is still downside risk



The underlying MT direction is neutral while the daily bias is neutral. Therefore it may be better to sit out of the market or trade breaks when supported by bullish or bearish set up patterns. It is advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support a trade in either direction. It may well be advisable to take profits when seen or if there is a larger break out to consider using a trailing stop to protect profits.



Daily Bullish



Friday's drop really puts price on the back foot. Indeed, there is considerable resistance around the 90.48-80 area and it is only above here that would bring potential for the preferred rally. Right now we are meeting first resistance at 90.07-24 and while this holds we could see another drop. The key support as far as I can see is between 88.75-82 & 89.02. If there is a bullish reversal pattern and 4-hour momentum has begun to turn higher in a bullish divergence this could provide the base. A direct break above 90.48-80 would provoke follow-through to around 91.40-61 which should hold on first test. Above would extend gains towards the 92.31 high.



Medium Term Bullish



2nd November: We really do need the 89.75-89.02 area to support to retain a stronger chance of a second rally higher although only below the 88.00 low really rules out another rally. A move above 90.48-80 will help - and then the 91.61 corrective high. Min target is at 92.89.



Daily Bearish



Well, that was quite a drop and it's a little difficult trying to identify quite where any low should develop. The 89.18 low seen this morning is quite close to the 89.02 retracement support but there is further around 88.75-82. In deed, while the 90.07-24 area caps we should be aware of the continued downside risk to 88.75-82 at least. Below there I can see a projection at 88.26 and this is probably the last support... However, around the 88.00-26 area we should pause and watch as only below 88.00 would see this decline extend towards the 87.10-40 area... Also note support at 86.98 and 86.35.



Medium Term Bearish



2nd November: I can't rule out a total reversal lower although it's not my preference. However, wait for break of 88.00-26 and if this is seen then the risk is for losses to 87.10-40, 86.98 and 86.35 at least. Below there the implication is for losses to around 84.00-50.

Market Morning Briefing

EQUITIES




The equities have seen some correction last week. The Dow corrected nearly 2.5% on the back of bad economic data including personal income and durable goods. Though the economy grew by 3.5% p.a. in the third quarter, concerns over personal spending and housing market still prevails. Also, bankruptcy filed by CIT is another concern which might grip the financial stocks going forward. This week, the eyes would be glued on to the Manufacturing ISM (today), FOMC Meeting (Wed) and the NFP (Fri).



The Asian equities too have corrected sharply last week. The Shanghai closed 3.6% lower last week and Nikkei nearly 2.5% lower. The Sensex (15896.28), too, has seen some major correction last week. It crashed nearly 5.5% and has found some Support near 15800. We shall have to see, if this Support continues to be honoured. Else, the next prominent Support is at 15000. Today, the stock markets in India are closed on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti.

COMMODITIES

Crude (76.83) fell sharply and is now trading below 77 following the weak US consumer sentiment and the consumer spending data released on Friday, which still holds the concerns about the economic recovery and the energy demand. If it continues to trade lower we might see a downmove towards 75.50-75 in the coming days.




Gold (1043.70) closed lower on Friday as the dollar continued to strengthen thereby reducing the precious metal's hedge value. As mentioned earlier Support is seen in the region 1030-20 which we expect to hold as the broader picture continues to remain bullish.

CURRENCIES

Whether last week's corrective fall in the Euro and Aussie has some more way to go or not is the big question facing the market this week. Chances are even either way.




News of CIT filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy saw the Dollar gain further in early morning trade today. It has retreated a bit since then. The Euro (1.4752) has recovered a bit after seeing an early morning dip below 1.47, to a low near 1.4684. The Aussie (0.9020) too has bounced a bit from an early morning low near 0.8950. Dollar-Yen (89.94) has rallied from a low near 89.42 to almost 90 now. The Pound (1.6443) continues to be mixed. Dollar-Swiss (1.0231) has come off from a high near 1.0289 and may gain further towards 1.02 today.



In Asia, the Sing Dollar trades relatively strong near 1.40 and has chances of gaining further. The Korean Won (1185) is also relatively strong compared to the weakness it has seen last week. Dollar-Rupee is closed for Nanak Jayanti today. It had closed near 46.96/97 on Friday.

INTEREST RATES

3M USD LIBOR was left unchanged throughout last week at 0.28%. It has been at this level for nearly a month. The US Treasuries are quoting higher today which has brought the yields down by over 9 bps for maturities over 5Y. The 10Y yields are quoting at 3.41% and the 2Y yields at 0.90%.




This week there are host of central bank meetings lined up. The RBA rate announcement tomorrow (3rd-Nov), FOMC Mtg on Wednesday, BoE and ECB meetings on Thursday. Among these only RBA is expected to increase rates by another 25 bps. Last month, RBA became the first G-8 central bankers to raise its key interest rate from 3.00% to 3.25%.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

FOREX TERMINOLOGY PART 1

ADX (Average Directional Index) — standard technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend.

Ask (Offer) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.

Aussie — a Forex slang name for the Australian dollar.

Bank Rate — the percentage rate at which central bank of a country lends money to the country's commercial banks.

Bid — price of the demand, the price you sell for.

Broker — the market participating body which serves as the middleman between retail traders and larger commercial institutions.

Cable — a Forex traders slang word GBP/USD currency pair.

Carry Trade — in Forex, holding a position with a positive overnight interest return in hope of gaining profits, without closing the position, just for the central banks interest rates difference.

CCI (Commodity Channel Index) — a cyclical technical indicator that is often used to detect overbought/oversold states of the market.

CFD — a Contract for Difference — special trading instrument that allows financial speculation on stocks, commodities and other instruments without actually buying.

Commission — broker commissions for operation handling.

CPI — consumer price index the statistical measure of inflation based upon changes of prices of a specified set of goods.

EA (Expert Advisor) — an automated script which is used by the trading platform software to manage positions and orders automatically without (or with little) manual control.

ECN Broker — a type of Forex brokerage firm that provide its clients direct access to other Forex market participants. ECN brokers don't discourage scalping, don't trade against the client, don't charge spread (low spread is defined by current market prices) but charge commissions for every order.

ECB (European Central Bank) — the main regulatory body of the European Union financial system.

FOREX TERMINOLOGY PART 2

Fed (Federal Reserve) — the main regulatory body of the United States of America financial system, which division — FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) — regulates, among other things, federal interest rates.

Fibonacci Retracements — the levels with a high probability of trend break or bounce, calculated as the 23.6%, 32.8%, 50% and 61.8% of the trend range.

Flat (Square) — neutral state when all your positions are closed.

Fundamental Analysis — the analysis based only on news, economic indicators and global events.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — is a measure of the national income and output for the country's economy; it's one of the most important Forex indicators.

GTC (Good Till Cancelled) — order to buy or sell of a currency with a fixed price or worse. The order is alive (good) until execution or cancellation.

Hedging — maintaining a market position which secures the existing open positions in the opposite direction.

Jobber — a slang word for a trader which is aimed toward fast but small and short-term profit from an intra-day trading. Jobber rarely leaves open positions overnight.

Kiwi — a Forex slang name for the New Zealand currency — New Zealand dollar.

Leading Indicators — a composite index (year 1992 = 100%) of ten most important macroeconomic indicators that predicts future (6-9 months) economic activity.

Limit Order — order for a broker to buy the lot for fixed or lesser price or sell the lot for fixed or better price. Such price is called limit price.

Liquidity — the measure of markets which describes relationship between the trading volume and the price change.

Long — the position which is in a Buy direction. In Forex, the primary currency when bought is long and another is short.

Loss — the loss from closing long position at lower rate than opening or short position with higher rate than opening, or if the profit from a position closing was lower than broker commission on it.

Lot — definite amount of units or amount of money accepted for operations handling (usually it is a multiple of 100).

Margin — money, the investor needs to keep at broker account to execute trades. It supplies the possible losses which may occur in margin trading.

Margin Account — account which is used to hold investor's deposited money for FOREX trading.

Margin Call — demand of a broker to deposit more margin money to the margin account when the amount in it falls below certain minimum.

Market Order — order to buy or sell a lot for a current market price.

Market Price — the current price for which the currency is traded for on the market.

Momentum — the measure of the currency's ability to move in the given direction.

FOREX TERMINOLOGY PART 3

Moving Average (MA) — one of the most basic technical indicators. It shows the average rate calculated over a series of time periods. Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA) etc. are just the ways of weighing the rates and the periods.

Offer (Ask) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.

Open Position (Trade) — position on buying (long) or selling (short) for a currency pair.

Order — order for a broker to buy or sell the currency with a certain rate.

Pivot Point — the primary support/resistance point calculated basing on the previous trend's High, Low and Close prices.

Pip (Point) — the last digit in the rate (e.g. for EUR/USD 1 point = 0.0001).

Profit (Gain) — positive amount of money gained for closing the position.

Principal Value — the initial amount of money of the invested.

Realized Profit/Loss — gain/loss for already closed positions.

Resistance — price level for which the intensive selling can lead to price increasing (up-trend).

RSI (Relative Strength Index) — indicator that measures of the power of direction price movement by comparing the bullish and bearish portions of the trend.

Scalping — a style of trading notable by many positions that are opened for extremely small and short-term profits.

Settled (Closed) Position — closed positions for which all needed transactions has been made.

FOREX TERMINOLOGY PART 4

Slippage — execution of order for a price different than expected (ordered), main reasons for slippage are — "fast" market, low liquidity and low broker's ability to execute orders.

Spread — difference between ask and bid prices for a currency pair.

Standard Lot — 100,000 units of the base currency of the currency pair, which you are buying or selling.

Stop-Limit Order — order to sell or buy a lot for a certain price or worse.

Stop-Loss Order — order to sell or buy a lot when the market reaches certain price. It is used to avoid extra losses when market moves in the opposite direction. Usually is a combination of stop-order and limit-order.

Support — price level for which intensive buying can lead to the price decreasing (down-trend).

Swap — overnight payment for holding your position. Since you are not physically receiving the currency you buy, your broker should pay you the interest rate difference between the two currencies of the pair. It can be negative or positive.

Technical Analysis — the analysis based only on the technical market data (quotes) with the help of various technical indicators.

Trend — direction of market which has been established with influence of different factors.

Unrealized (Floating) Profit/Loss — a profit/loss for your non-closed positions.

Useable Margin — amount of money in the account that can be used for trading.

Used Margin — amount of money in the account already used to hold open positions open.

Volatility — a statistical measure of the number of price changes for a given currency pair in a given period of time.

VPS (Virtual Private Server) — virtual environment hosted on the dedicated server, which can be used to run the programs independent on the user's PC. Forex traders use VPS to host trading platforms and run expert advisors without unexpected interruptions.

Trend Following

Trend following, a strategy used in all trading time-frames, assumes that financial instruments which have been rising steadily will continue to rise, and vice versa with falling. The trend follower buys an instrument which has been rising, or short sells a falling one, in the expectation that the trend will continue.

Scalping

Scalping was originally referred to as spread trading. Scalping is a trading style where small price gaps created by the bid-ask spread are exploited. It normally involves establishing and liquidating a position quickly, usually within minutes or even seconds.




Scalping highly liquid instruments for off the floor day traders involves taking quick profits while minimizing risk (loss exposure). It applies technical analysis concepts such as over/under-bought, support and resistance zones as well as trendline, trading channel to enter the market at key points and take quick profits from small moves. The basic idea of scalping is to exploit the inefficiency of the market when volatility increases and the trading range expands.

Cable (foreign exchange)

Cable is a foreign exchange term used for the GBP/USD currency pair rate (British Pound vs the US Dollar). It derives its name from the Transatlantic Cable, a steel cable laid under the Atlantic Ocean in 1858, telegraphically linking the UK with the USA, enabling messages with currency prices to be transmitted between the London and New York Exchanges.




Fibre optic cables and satellites have now taken over for both local and international communications, but the nickname has remained in the foreign exchange sector.

Currency spread

If the current bid price for the EUR/USD currency pair is 1.5760 and the current ask price is 1.5763. This means that currently you can sell the EUR/USD at 1.5760 and buy at 1.5763. The difference between those prices is the spread. If the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 101.89 by 92 which is another way of saying that the bid for the USD/JPY 101.89 and the ask is 101.92. This means that we can currently sell USD/JPY at 101.89 and buy at 101.92

Bid-offer spread

The bid/offer spread (also known as bid/ask or buy/sell spread) for securities (such as stock, futures contracts, options, or currency pairs) is the difference between the price quoted by a market maker for an immediate sale (bid) and an immediate purchase (ask). The size of the bid-offer spread in a given commodity is a measure of the liquidity of the market and the size of the transaction cost. [1]




The trader initiating the transaction is said to demand liquidity, and the other party (counterparty) to the transaction supplies liquidity. Liquidity demanders place market orders and liquidity suppliers place limit orders. For a round trip (a purchase and sale together) the liquidity demander pays the spread and the liquidity supplier earns the spread. All limit orders outstanding at a given time (i.e., limit orders that have not been executed) are together called the Limit Order Book. In some markets such as NASDAQ, dealers supply liquidity. However, on most exchanges, such as the Australian Securities Exchange, there are no designated liquidity suppliers, and liquidity is supplied by other traders. On these exchanges, and even on NASDAQ, institutions and individuals can supply liquidity by placing limit orders.



The bid-ask spread is an accepted measure of liquidity costs in exchange traded securities and commodities.On any standardized exchange two elements comprise almost all of the transaction cost – brokerage fees and bid-ask spreads. Under competitive conditions the bid-ask spread measures the cost of making transactions without delay. The difference in price paid by an urgent buyer and received by an urgent seller is the liquidity cost. Since brokerage commissions do not vary with the time taken to complete a transaction, differences in bid-ask spread indicate differences in the liquidity cost

Paper trading

Paper trading (sometimes also called "virtual stock trading") is a simulated trading process in which would-be investors can 'practice' investing without committing real money.




This is done by the manipulation of imaginary money and investment positions that behave in a manner similar to the real markets. Before the widespread use of online trading for the general public, paper trading was considered too difficult by many new investors. Now that computers do most of the calculations, new investors can practice making fortunes time and time again before actually committing financially. Investors also use paper trading to test new and different investment strategies. Stock market games are often used for educational purposes.



For example, investors can create several different positions simultaneously to compare the performance and payoff characteristics between multiple strategies. A textbook may state that writing a covered call is synthetically the same as writing a naked put, but in practice there are subtle differences. With a paper trading account, an investor can set up a bull credit spread and a bull debit spread simultaneously and watch how the payoff for each position changes as the market moves.



Other advanced strategies include leverage, short-selling, forex and derivatives trading. Successful execution and profit generation from these strategies usually require high levels of technical knowledge. Investors can test these strategies with paper trading to avoid taking on excessive risk due to inexperience.



Various companies and online trading simulation tools offer paper trading services, some free, others with charges, that allow investors to try out various strategies (some stock brokerages allow 14-day 'demo accounts'), or paper trading can be carried out simply by noting down fees and recording the value of investments over time.



The imaginary money of paper trading is sometimes also called "paper money," "virtual money," and "Monopoly money."